Only Flyers can make 'experts' wrong

By ED MORAN
morane@phillynews.com

October 5, 2006

Luukko takes new role in Flyers' new age
WITH JUST a week left in his first training camp as captain of the Flyers, Peter Forsberg was being understanding and casual about where his team was being picked to finish this season.

According to some prognostications, they are no better than 10th out of 15 teams in the East, sixth by other accounts, and by majority agreement not a team that is supposed to do well.

Forsberg, instead of being insulted, said he understood.

"The way we played at the end of last year, we shouldn't be rated any higher than we are right now," he said. "But I think we're capable of playing better than we did the last part of the year... and hopefully we'll get everybody back healthy and we should be better.

"But I understand why people are ranking us that way."

That was a week ago, just before the team was getting ready to take a train to Washington. Along the way Forsberg looked into the rankings and realized something he didn't understand when he was first asked about it. On Monday he wanted to set the record straight.

"Those picks were for the East,'' he said. "I thought they were for the league."

And then he got defensive.

"We'll be fine; sixth in the East, 10th in the East,'' he said. "I think it's hard to predict that... all the teams are pretty even now and if you look at last year nobody thought [Buffalo and Carolina] would be up there. The league is so even nowadays."

And he might be right. When it comes right down to it, there isn't a team in the East that looks as if it can just walk away with the conference.

Buffalo is probably the strongest team. Without all the injuries the Sabres endured through the first three rounds of the playoffs last season, they might have derailed Carolina's championship.

The Sabres still look the strong-est. But the rest, well, it's always hard to defend the Cup, and Carolina is not the same team it was last spring. The Rangers have their issues, and so do the Devils, Senators, Maple Leafs, Canadiens and everybody else.

The question marks that hang over the Flyers are many. The predictions can be argued; there is a lot of gray area in the columns of the orange and black.

So they can't be as bad as everyone is saying, except...

Is the forward lineup good enough?

Any team that has Forsberg as its top-line center is skating in the right direction. The Flyers have added speed and depth for the third and fourth lines and the second line of Jeff Carter, Mike Richards and Kyle Calder could be flat-out electric.

Coach Ken Hitchcock thinks his forwards are good.

"We're not just talking about having four lines that play, we have four lines that can play," he said.

The forwards should be good except...

Can Forsberg stay healthy?

Not since 2002-03 has Forsberg played a full season. In fact, he has played all 82 games just once in his career, in 1995-96. He missed 22 games last season with a series of groin injuries. That should not be a problem this season, as he had his crooked right foot and torn ankle ligaments, believed to be the source of the problems, corrected.

Still, he has had other injuries in the past, serious ones, and he neither plays at half-speed nor suits up when he is injured.

"I have had a lot of health problems, but the thing is I'm not going to change my playing style, I'm going to play the same way, and if I do get hurt, I get hurt,'' he said. "I'm not going to change my playing style. I go out and try to win every single game every shift I'm out there. Hopefully, with the foot feeling better I can stay away from the groin injuries and I hope I can do well. But you never know. I won't hide because I don't want to get hurt. It's been a while since I played 82 games; we'll see if I can."

If the forwards are good enough and Forsberg stays healthy, then the defense won't spend so much time in the spotlight except...

Has the slowest defense in the East improved?

It has if Derian Hatcher is really as committed as he appeared to be in training camp and if Mike Rathje's hip and back are pain-free, and if Joni Pitkanen can finally become the elite defenseman for whom the Flyers traded Ruslan Fedotenko to Tampa Bay before the 2002 draft.

"This is the year that [Pitkanen] has to act very much like a veteran player," Hitchcock said. "And I think he's going to have a dominant year."

That said, it's hard to imagine the team will go through the entire season without making a move to add a better player. After the top four of Hatcher, Rathje, Pitkanen and Freddy Meyer, the talent levels out and the questions get bigger.

So the defense will be good enough if...

The forwards play defense.

Forgetting everything that has been said about the new NHL, Hitchcock teams think defense first. They will have to find a way to keep teams out of their end and away from the net.

As for the net, will a goalie tandem really work?

The biggest question here was the personality of Robert Esche. He wasn't happy last season when he was pushed to the limit by Antero Niittymaki. That happened after Esche was injured and the rookie filled in as the every-game starter.

Esche has said this season will be different.

"I'm not asking questions this year," Esche said at the start of camp. "Just tell me when I'm going to play. I'm ready for it.

"Last year was bad situation after bad situation after bad situation, argument after argument. I was injured, I was trying to fight through a bad hip, and that stuff isn't easy to go through."

But the question now is again about health. Niittymaki tore his left hip labrum and now will play with the aid of a series of cortisone injections to keep the inflammation under control and quiet the pain. But his injury will be there until he has it surgically repaired the way he had his right hip done this summer.

All of these issues can be overcome. This is a team game, after all, and can a single issue really bring down a season?

It can't unless...

There is no chemistry.

Last season the Flyers were a leaderless, wandering team that had a boatload of injuries and issues that made leadership an even bigger problem than the loss of captain Keith Primeau.

But now the Flyers have a new captain and a handful of new players.

However, this is essentially the same team from last season and it eventually should come together.

So do the preseason opinions of the hockey media really matter?

"Everyone's got their opinion," said Mike Knuble. "There is a different kind of chatter than there was last year. I don't know what the reason is.

"I think our division is going to be more competitive. I think it's going to come down to the last day, like it did last year. There are going to be more teams involved. The Islanders are going to be good, the Rangers are a much better team and New Jersey will always be New Jersey.

"You don't know. It's not always what it seems on paper. A guy comes out of the woodwork and starts overachieving, something happens and the next thing you know you get something that you weren't expecting."

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